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This release contains information on smoothed U.S. recession probabilities. The probabilities are obtained from dynamic-factor markov-switching model and consists of four variables: non-farm payroll employment, the index of industrial production, real personal income excluding transfer payments, and real manufacturing and trade sales.
Overview
The source code outlining how this product gathers, transforms, revises and publishes its datasets is available at https://github.com/rearc-data/fred-smoothed-recession-probabilities .
Main Overview
This release contains information on smoothed U.S. recession probabilities. The probabilities are obtained from dynamic-factor markov-switching model and consists of four variables: non-farm payroll employment, the index of industrial production, real personal income excluding transfer payments, and real manufacturing and trade sales.
The included data is provided by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis' FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) platform, which contains information on over 700,000+ series related to historical economic data. If you are interested in learning more or want to explore other datasets maintained on FRED, visit the FRED homepage .
Data Source
This resource is presented in both the XLS and CSV formats. The included dataset contains the following columns:
DATE, RECPROUSM156N
The RECPROUSM156N column represents the smoothed probability of a recession in the U.S. at the time of the corresponding DATE.
More Information
- Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)
- FRED | Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
- Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis | Homepage
- Terms of Use FAQ
- Frequency: Monthly
- Formats: XLS, CSV
Contact Details
- If you find any issues with or have enhancement ideas for this product, open up a GitHub issue and we will gladly take a look at it. Better yet, submit a pull request. Any contributions you make are greatly appreciated ❤️.
- If you are looking for specific open datasets currently not available on ADX, please submit a request on our project board here .
- If you have questions about the source data, please contact FRED .
- If you have any other questions or feedback, send us an email at data@rearc.io .
About Rearc
Rearc is a cloud, software and services company. We believe that empowering engineers drives innovation. Cloud-native architectures, modern software and data practices, and the ability to safely experiment can enable engineers to realize their full potential. We have partnered with several enterprises and startups to help them achieve agility. Our approach is simple — empower engineers with the best tools possible to make an impact within their industry.
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Dimensions summary
This listing uses a single free pricing dimension. Product Access (Units) grants you access to the dataset as a subscriber. There are no tiers, usage add-ons, or size-based options to choose from. You subscribe once and consume the data through AWS Data Exchange. The vendor publishes this free, publicly available dataset so you can integrate it into your data pipeline without acquisition or processing overhead. Because access carries no charge, there is nothing that scales with usage or quantity.
Top-of-mind questions for buyers
It grants you subscriber access to the Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities dataset at no charge. You consume the data through AWS Data Exchange. There are no usage meters, seats, or quantity counts that affect what you pay.
No. This is a single free dimension with no usage variability. Your cost stays the same regardless of how often you access the dataset or how much you pull. Nothing scales with volume, users, or quantity. Note that underlying AWS service charges for storage or transfer may still apply separately.
You subscribe once and access the dataset through AWS Data Exchange. The vendor publishes this publicly available dataset and manages its life cycle, so you can feed it into your data pipeline without handling acquisition or processing yourself.
www.rearc.io
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Delivery details
AWS Data Exchange (ADX)
AWS Data Exchange is a service that helps AWS easily share and manage data entitlements from other organizations at scale.
Additional details
You will receive access to the following data sets.
Data set name | Type | Historical revisions | Future revisions | Sensitive information | Data dictionaries | Data samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities | FRED | All historical revisions | All future revisions | Not included | Not included |
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